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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2022-07-18T17:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-07-18T17:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/20900/-1
CME Note: Bright CME SW in SOHO LASCO and STEREO A COR2. This CME seems to have accelerated over time. Its source seems to be a slow filament eruption mostly SE from AR 3056 (which was located at W40S17 at the time of eruption), possibly stretching along latitude of ~30 deg, with dimming stretching from W10 to W30 and post-eruptive arcades at W30-W50. CME arrival is characterized by a sudden increase in B_total to ~17nT accompanied by increases in density, temperature, and solar wind speed (peaking around ~700km/s) at L1. This arrival may instead/also be associated with the CME first visible in SOHO LASCO C2 at 2022-07-21T01:36Z and the CME first detected at 2022-07-21T01:48Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2022-07-23T02:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-07-23T07:10Z
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Average of all Methods
Prediction Method Note:

This is the auto generated average of all submitted predictions for this CME

Lead Time: 59.23 hour(s)
Difference: -4.70 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Auto Generated (CCMC) on 2022-07-20T15:14Z

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